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ERI Publishes 2025 Nuclear Fuel Cycle Supply and Price ReportJune 2025
Energy Resources International, Inc’s (ERI) Nuclear Fuel Cycle Supply and Price Report, published in June 2025 (2025 ERI Report), provides comprehensive and in-depth analyses of all elements of the nuclear fuel markets through 2045 using ERI’s proprietary Integrated Market Model (IMM). The IMM projects worldwide forecasts for nuclear power and integrates these nuclear power forecasts and associated nuclear fuel demand with nuclear fuel supply forecasts. The 2025 ERI Report (i) examines the key nuclear fuel requirements and supply issues likely to affect the uranium, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication markets and spent fuel management through 2045, and (ii) projects future market prices through 2040.
The 2025 ERI Report addresses impacts to Western nuclear fuel markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as many nuclear operators taken actions to backstop their exposure to Russian nuclear fuel products by securing alternative supplies. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act imposed a ban on the import of Russian uranium fuel into the U.S., which took effect in August 2025. In retaliation for the U.S. ban, Russia temporarily halted exports to the U.S. market in November 2024. While exports to the U.S. restarted, this export ban and the special export permits adds another layer of uncertainty to Russian supply to the U.S. Regarding possible disruptions to Russian supply, ERI focuses on conversion and enrichment supply as these two nuclear fuel components are the most vulnerable.
Status and Prospects for Nuclear Power
Worldwide nuclear power capacity increased 0.7% (2.8 GWe) during 2024, and is expected to continue to increase this year, as new additions in a number of countries are partially offset by retirements. At the end of 2024, world commercial nuclear power generation capacity stood at 394.1 gigawatt-electric (GWe) net at 438 operating units in 32 countries, providing 10% of total world electric generation.
ERI has constructed three forecasts to characterize the potential use of nuclear power for the generation of electricity, representing Reference, Low and High Nuclear Power Growth Forecasts. These forecasts, which reflect the inherent uncertainties involved in long-term predictions of economic and political climates around the world, are current as of May 2025 and extend through the year 2045. The Reference Nuclear Power Growth forecast is consistent with a steady average annual nuclear generating capacity growth rate of 2.1% through the year 2045, which is a result of life extension and new construction.
Uranium Market
World uranium requirements were essentially unchanged in 2024, declining 0.3% to 147.5 million pounds and are projected to increase to 161 million pounds in 2025 and to 166 million pounds in 2026 as capacity factors improve and new reactors come online. Requirements then steadily rise to 181 million pounds in 2030, 214 million pounds in 2035, 242 million pounds in 2040 and 252 million pounds in 2045. The average annual rate of increase is 2.6%.
Mine production for 2024 is estimated to have been 156.8 million pounds, an increase of 16 million pounds or 11% from 2023. Primary supply of uranium comes from existing mines and uranium production centers, expansion of existing production and properties that are planned or prospective. The restart of mines under care and maintenance as well as new startup are in active development, with initial production expected this year. Uranium market clearing prices are projected to rise to support production increases.
Conversion Services Market
During the past year, Orano’s Philippe Coste conversion facility continued its ramp up, not yet achieving full production capacity. Metropolis Works continued to have steady production and Cameco’s Port Hope facility incrementally increased production in 2024. World requirements for uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion services under the Reference Nuclear Power Growth forecast are projected to increase from 54 million kgU as UF6 in 2024 to 92 million kgU by 2045, an increase of 70%.
In 2024, actual UF6 production continued to be lower than requirements, with the resulting production deficit covered by secondary supply and a drawdown in utility and supplier inventories. The projected supply deficit over the period of 2025 to 2030 averages -3.6 million kgU annually. ERI assumes that this near-term deficit may be covered by strategic inventory drawdown; however, the availability of strategic inventory remains uncertain. Over the period 2031 to 2035, the supply deficit grows to -8 million kgU per year and the deficit averages -11.4 million kgU per year over the period 2036 to 2045. No converter has yet committed to expanding existing capacity or building new conversion capacity.
Enrichment Services Market
The Reference forecast projects that annual world requirements for enrichment services will be 52.4 million SWU in 2025. Requirements are expected to continue to steadily increase to 84 million SWU in 2045, with an average annual growth rate is 2.7% per year over the forecast period. Enrichment supply declined slightly in 2024. Total enrichment capacity in 2023 was greater than requirements, with the excess supply used to underfeed and re-enrich tails material, as has been the case for a number of years, although Western enrichers are moving away from underfeeding in order to increase SWU production
The rise in clearing prices over the last two years is due to the elimination of available excess inventories and the near-term need for new enrichment capacity that has resulted from restrictions on Russian enrichment supply in response to the Ukraine invasion. The higher prices are needed to incentivize the addition of new capacity at existing Western enrichment sites as well as possible new production facilities.
Fuel Fabrication Market
Fabrication facilities in the U.S., Europe, Japan and Russia continue to be underutilized; however, new areas for growth include alliances with small modular reactor and advanced reactor designers for fuel fabrication. Russian fabricator, JSC TVEL, is playing an increasing international role in fuel fabrication associated with supply of initial cores and reload fuel associated with new VVER nuclear power plants in China, Belarus, India, Turkey and other countries, although TVEL is losing market share in Europe and Eastern Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development by fabricators continues in the U.S. and Europe. Lead test assemblies with enrichment assays above 5 weight-percent (w/o) Uranium-235 (U-235) were introduced into a U.S. reactor in early 2025. Several nuclear operators are moving forward with plans to implement ATF fuel designs in the coming years. Fabrication facility licensing for enrichment assays about 5 w/o U-235 is expected to be completed in the 2026 to 2027 timeframe, with reload fuel quantities expected to be delivered in the late 2020s and early 2030s.
The 2025 ERI Report addresses impacts to Western nuclear fuel markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as many nuclear operators taken actions to backstop their exposure to Russian nuclear fuel products by securing alternative supplies. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act imposed a ban on the import of Russian uranium fuel into the U.S., which took effect in August 2025. In retaliation for the U.S. ban, Russia temporarily halted exports to the U.S. market in November 2024. While exports to the U.S. restarted, this export ban and the special export permits adds another layer of uncertainty to Russian supply to the U.S. Regarding possible disruptions to Russian supply, ERI focuses on conversion and enrichment supply as these two nuclear fuel components are the most vulnerable.
Status and Prospects for Nuclear Power
Worldwide nuclear power capacity increased 0.7% (2.8 GWe) during 2024, and is expected to continue to increase this year, as new additions in a number of countries are partially offset by retirements. At the end of 2024, world commercial nuclear power generation capacity stood at 394.1 gigawatt-electric (GWe) net at 438 operating units in 32 countries, providing 10% of total world electric generation.
ERI has constructed three forecasts to characterize the potential use of nuclear power for the generation of electricity, representing Reference, Low and High Nuclear Power Growth Forecasts. These forecasts, which reflect the inherent uncertainties involved in long-term predictions of economic and political climates around the world, are current as of May 2025 and extend through the year 2045. The Reference Nuclear Power Growth forecast is consistent with a steady average annual nuclear generating capacity growth rate of 2.1% through the year 2045, which is a result of life extension and new construction.
Uranium Market
World uranium requirements were essentially unchanged in 2024, declining 0.3% to 147.5 million pounds and are projected to increase to 161 million pounds in 2025 and to 166 million pounds in 2026 as capacity factors improve and new reactors come online. Requirements then steadily rise to 181 million pounds in 2030, 214 million pounds in 2035, 242 million pounds in 2040 and 252 million pounds in 2045. The average annual rate of increase is 2.6%.
Mine production for 2024 is estimated to have been 156.8 million pounds, an increase of 16 million pounds or 11% from 2023. Primary supply of uranium comes from existing mines and uranium production centers, expansion of existing production and properties that are planned or prospective. The restart of mines under care and maintenance as well as new startup are in active development, with initial production expected this year. Uranium market clearing prices are projected to rise to support production increases.
Conversion Services Market
During the past year, Orano’s Philippe Coste conversion facility continued its ramp up, not yet achieving full production capacity. Metropolis Works continued to have steady production and Cameco’s Port Hope facility incrementally increased production in 2024. World requirements for uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion services under the Reference Nuclear Power Growth forecast are projected to increase from 54 million kgU as UF6 in 2024 to 92 million kgU by 2045, an increase of 70%.
In 2024, actual UF6 production continued to be lower than requirements, with the resulting production deficit covered by secondary supply and a drawdown in utility and supplier inventories. The projected supply deficit over the period of 2025 to 2030 averages -3.6 million kgU annually. ERI assumes that this near-term deficit may be covered by strategic inventory drawdown; however, the availability of strategic inventory remains uncertain. Over the period 2031 to 2035, the supply deficit grows to -8 million kgU per year and the deficit averages -11.4 million kgU per year over the period 2036 to 2045. No converter has yet committed to expanding existing capacity or building new conversion capacity.
Enrichment Services Market
The Reference forecast projects that annual world requirements for enrichment services will be 52.4 million SWU in 2025. Requirements are expected to continue to steadily increase to 84 million SWU in 2045, with an average annual growth rate is 2.7% per year over the forecast period. Enrichment supply declined slightly in 2024. Total enrichment capacity in 2023 was greater than requirements, with the excess supply used to underfeed and re-enrich tails material, as has been the case for a number of years, although Western enrichers are moving away from underfeeding in order to increase SWU production
The rise in clearing prices over the last two years is due to the elimination of available excess inventories and the near-term need for new enrichment capacity that has resulted from restrictions on Russian enrichment supply in response to the Ukraine invasion. The higher prices are needed to incentivize the addition of new capacity at existing Western enrichment sites as well as possible new production facilities.
Fuel Fabrication Market
Fabrication facilities in the U.S., Europe, Japan and Russia continue to be underutilized; however, new areas for growth include alliances with small modular reactor and advanced reactor designers for fuel fabrication. Russian fabricator, JSC TVEL, is playing an increasing international role in fuel fabrication associated with supply of initial cores and reload fuel associated with new VVER nuclear power plants in China, Belarus, India, Turkey and other countries, although TVEL is losing market share in Europe and Eastern Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development by fabricators continues in the U.S. and Europe. Lead test assemblies with enrichment assays above 5 weight-percent (w/o) Uranium-235 (U-235) were introduced into a U.S. reactor in early 2025. Several nuclear operators are moving forward with plans to implement ATF fuel designs in the coming years. Fabrication facility licensing for enrichment assays about 5 w/o U-235 is expected to be completed in the 2026 to 2027 timeframe, with reload fuel quantities expected to be delivered in the late 2020s and early 2030s.